Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 13.199600 15.083899 17.104343 19.427494 22.020354 24.820558 28.068773
2025-10-12 10.470445 13.049635 16.021997 19.682588 24.049953 29.073174 35.266240
2025-10-19 8.910100 11.750930 15.180748 19.592812 25.080439 31.641072 40.033581
2025-10-26 7.642490 10.617077 14.364142 19.377326 25.847972 33.851718 44.424702
2025-11-02 6.768663 9.839187 13.851914 19.404096 26.798953 36.210852 48.980770
2025-11-09 6.101296 9.246907 13.498289 19.562572 27.870210 38.715926 53.782604
2025-11-16 5.470523 8.626628 13.029973 19.492887 28.581427 40.727865 57.970154
2025-11-23 4.901908 8.030709 12.530674 19.316571 29.097140 42.457510 61.807204
2025-11-30 4.498576 7.635178 12.274463 19.445653 30.014980 44.740235 66.453390
2025-12-07 4.249270 7.448220 12.301385 19.972098 31.505699 47.858427 72.357642
2025-12-14 3.840188 6.966823 11.839975 19.725380 31.832607 49.315007 75.941944
2025-12-21 3.347359 6.299608 11.034453 18.887841 31.212635 49.350061 77.449315
2025-12-28 3.192643 6.193127 11.119678 19.457472 32.776547 52.679182 83.937458
2026-01-04 3.012815 6.026342 11.092887 19.842644 34.068957 55.652044 90.010157
2026-01-11 2.755919 5.695744 10.764130 19.705516 34.515102 57.341136 94.190721
2026-01-18 2.514420 5.369062 10.414927 19.505639 34.838501 58.838495 98.114527
2026-01-25 2.332049 5.135249 10.207505 19.526533 35.511283 60.890244 102.945833
2026-02-01 2.187189 4.959606 10.088776 19.688069 36.415602 63.329183 108.450001
2026-02-08 2.022270 4.727576 9.848853 19.617206 36.916568 65.129553 112.991027
2026-02-15 1.858305 4.480811 9.561866 19.440195 37.218959 66.606850 117.048728
2026-02-22 1.746748 4.332547 9.449245 19.569892 38.051067 68.970629 122.599063
2026-03-01 1.690116 4.296956 9.550859 20.099293 39.604279 72.576599 130.279822
2026-03-08 1.551147 4.065986 9.250308 19.851195 39.754579 73.826453 134.103926